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Cake day: August 22nd, 2023

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  • The Supreme Court denial is just words. He stopped implementing the previous plan because he accepted and followed those words, but he could not. Maybe his bureaucracy will reject him and refuse to go against the Supreme Court words, but that’s a question for his bureaucracy.

    And yes, that’s how coups work. Sometimes the army/police/whatever backs down because some other entity in the civil power structure says “you can’t do that”. And other times, they don’t. It’s all decided based on the perceived power and righteousness of the two sides, not because the court just decides stuff and then it happens by some sort of magic.




  • Obama won by 10 million votes in 2008, and he wasn’t up against an incumbent with a (until Biden) historically low approval rating and in the middle of a crisis he was failing. Before the Democratic primary even started 56% of voters said they were definitely going to vote against Trump. Biden’s 6 million votes were by running up numbers in safe states, not a convincing electoral victory. The actual difference between winning and losing was 44k votes. Less than what would have flipped 2016 (80k), so unless you’re going to call Trump vs. Clinton a solid victory, Biden’s was a squeaker in an election that shouldn’t have been close.



  • Her pattern this campaign was the same as her pattern in the primary, start out as a mainstream progressive talking about changing the system and fighting Republicans, then after getting phone calls from donors and listening to establishment advisors abandon it all for overly restrictive benefit programs and empty words. Almost every time she said something good she’d walk it back over the next week.

    This doesn’t mean she should try again but finally buck her advisors and be her true self. Her deference to the sensibilities of rich donors is part of who she is.





  • So your argument is that he voluntarily backed down from a coup that otherwise would have continued and worked even after the military knew the rest of the government, including those in his own party, rejected his claim? Like he had some earnest change of heart rather than knew it was failing?

    Coups aren’t resolved by rules and regulations on who gets to command the military, they’re about whose message gets out as “official” and who the security forces follow, and he was obviously not winning that struggle. There were soldiers on the street apologizing and that the members of parliament even got into the building indicates the security forces weren’t fully on board. The very publicized opposition leader bypassed the restrictions by jumping a waist high fence.

    And none of this subjective determination of which individual entity held the most sway in ending the coup matters to anything else in the piece. It’s not even a terribly important question.