Is that the yearly Europe will freeze without Russian gas event?

Most of this pathetic fearmongering, based on the terror of a cold spell in the middle of winter is just fun geopolitical fiction. We can all imagine EU has no gas reserves suddenly, or ended last two winters with 80% capacity just for fun. In this world Ukraine that did not signal their plans for the last two years, apparently just did so to sabotage its backers, the goofy trolls they are. Jamal and Turkstream pipelines had just disappeared, as such installations do, to which this energy “expert” could surly attest. In the meantime LNG technology has been rightfully forgotten. And so if EU wanted to buy Russian gas it cant for the wretched Ukraine forbids it… Obviously issues like the fact Russia shut down Nordstream before it had it’s smoking incident should not concern us. There was not a single decade of gas blackmail of any of these soon frostpunk-turned states. Winter is a brand new concept in this part of Europe, and no one ever considered its strategic implications here, that is before the author of this thin-piece.

But the detachment from reality trophy is won by the claim of marvelous straight up climate denial;

Europe has seen consistently colder temperatures on average since 2016.

Honestly it’s hard to even make fun of such utter bullshit. Where does that even come from?

Global mean temperature between 2013 and 2023 was 1.19 to 1.22°C warmer than the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. European land temperatures have increased even faster over the same period by 2.12 to 2.19°C, depending on the dataset used.

EEA: Global and European temperatures, Published 26 Jun 2024

Ben Hetar was also responsible for the area of ​​sexual offenses. “Unfortunately, it will be very difficult to prove these offenses,” she says. "In the end, we have no complainants. What was presented in the media compared to what will ultimately emerge will be completely different. Either because the victims were murdered, or because the women who [were] raped are not prepared to reveal it. We contacted women’s rights organizations and asked for cooperation. They told us that they simply did not contact them. There were parents who contacted the organizations and asked what to do if something happened to their daughter, but they did not disclose the abuse

google translation of relevant fragment from source; https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra14200599

Check out #mosstodon tag on a bigger mastodon server.

But when terrorists take over Donbas and Russia holds on to mines, gas and grain, but later invades its ok?

Weird they had all this time over the last week of lighting advance and since toppling the regime (checks clock) 4 hours ago. Wonder what these Islamist fundamentalists might be up to.

3. yes normally you would translate (https://weblate.join-lemmy.org/browse/lemmy/lemmy/ka/) and wait for the update. maybe there’s some faster way to deploy it to your server but if I remember correctly and nothing changed you’d have to compile the app yourself

Actually even took screens to have more fun of showing how idiotic your argument is, but lemmys limit hits in and I cant be bothered to spend the extra 2 minutes compressing it. Did you at least take a look at the maps now?

Wining the war means destroying the fighting capacity of the AFU,

Works great since it got from “they bombard Donbas” (propaganda bullshit btw) to “dron debris” blowing up anything from refineries, factories 1500km deep inside, buildings in Moscow and bunkers in Kurks.

and ensuring that whatever is left of Ukraine remains a neutral state that can’t threaten Russia and that will never be part of NATO.

Also, Ukraine never had nukes.

Yeah, OFC, Russia and USA negotiated their handover for 6 years and paid for it just to larp.

Most people left in Ukraine do not care

How would you know that? Spoke to any in real life? I work with them by the hundreds in Poland, assist massive trade union in Ukraine. You’re delusional.

These deranged fantasies of yours regarding some kind of guerrilla warfare are never going to happen.

You don’t know the first thing about the history of the region, or Ukraine, dont you?

only western source that shows any methodology

The methodology is social media + public registries. How it matches the oft repeated Russian complaint of the dead being signed off as simply missing? At this point if you started reading “mil bloggers” directly it’d be an improvement for your level of propaganda detachment. If it were 100k lost Russian army would be pretty massive now taking in 30k/month according to it’s own statements, wouldn’t it? So why are most if not all observable bases on NATO borders half empty? We even see that in shop sales around Kaliningrad.

you’ll see that casualties have dropped off significantly in the past year of the war

Yeah, not like there’s a lag in announcements and very clearly there’s massive meat-wave attacks going on for the last half a year.

How do you think that’s going to work out for Europe when the hardcore fascists in Ukraine decide that you lot betrayed them?

Why would they if they are supplied by “European fascist states” and also “have all died already, it’s all forced conscription”. They are forced to fight, dead, and resentful if not supported at the same time? It really makes sense in your head?

Same, the difference is that I’m not licking liberal boots the way you are.

Yeah, also a very highly decorated ~~navy seal ~~ specnaz sniper… I’m more likely to believe you’re a dog with the level of detachment you’re displaying here.

Now you get to reap what you all sowed and I have zero sympathy for you.

You just said entire countries/Europe a comment ago, but I guess economic hardships or whatever that was meant to be are going to be extremely selective? You know that staff you spill out makes no sense even internally?

NATO decided that it would ignore Russia’s security interest

How does Russia consider the ones it gave to Ukraine?

You’re all going to be at each other’s throats

So much for pretending you’re from here. And yeah, check out any history of the states in the region.

Either yandex has some different maps or every map and satellite footage proves you wrong. Feel free to post anything that would prove that, or just enjoy the comparison of how much less forests is has compared to Ukraine.

How is the terrain there different?

You picked the one with the worst effect for Russia out of three, yes, but still won by Russia, so what was your point exactly?

And have you ever seen any footage of actual fighting in Ukraine? It’s either armored units getting butchered in the open fields, or tree-lines being the only safe means of approach and defensible entrenched positions.

Finland is exactly the type of terrain that enables modern military action. Unless you’re expecting NATO to use heavy cavalry, or (the earlier) battle of Kursk style mass tank formations, which is by now even less likely then cavalry. Pick your favorite highway of death between the Iraqi and the north of Kyiv one for a reality check my dear tank aficionado. Not to mention the absolutely spectacular position of Severomorsk - northern fleet command, relative to NATO borders nowadays. Or the fact that Russia is in reality so scared of NATO that there’s hardly any equipment or experienced troops left in that region currently as a cherry on top.

Out of pure interest what does “winning the war” mean for Russia?
Ukraine clearly described what it considers as a win, and it’s clearly very unlikely to achieve it; reclaiming all of it’s internationally recognized borders, you know as guaranteed by Russia and US when Ukraine gave away their nukes.
But Russia’s win was meant to be a parade through Kyiv on the 3rd day or so? Then that got corrected to finally capturing the oblasts they already proclaimed Russia two years ago? Now it might require also reclaiming the part of their actual country they lost, I guess? Your beloved land of social justice never really clearly defined what it’s territorial objectives are, but yeah, it’s not even a war, since they still land people in prison for calling it that so what’s to be won.
Not to mention loosing/crippling half a million of their citizens to size the poorest but fossil fuel rich parts of Ukraine plus a bunch of cities they leveled to the ground, with an estimated 1 million casualties of on both sides “for peace”. Oh, and a side of land fertile in mines. Or creating as you describe “a failed fascist state”, to… secure their border? Additional 1,340km of hard to defend border with NATO in the north? Which one is the win part here?

And mate, seriously, I was born in a collapsing “socialist republic”, and watched it being rampaged by neolibs with explosion of every possible pathology that causes.
It’s pitiful you wish such hardships upon any people, particularly for someones imperialist gains. And laughable you think what you are describing is the worst possible option for central and eastern Europe. Most of the region has seen Russian occupation, it’s in the living memory of our societies, which is exactly why things will not go the way you expect. The worse the situation, the stronger the resistance will be. We’re Slavs, we bask in suffering and fighting against the odds, it’s the one thing we know.

Have fun with your future deranged rumblings.

You claim Finland is somehow impossible to cross, even tho Russia itself invaded over these terrains at least 3 times in the XX century. You claim Ukraine is somehow key to Russian security even tho both times Moscow was reached by European countries it was done over Belarus. I’m coping? That is nearly funny.

Because the fascist regime you’re backing is gang pressing people into fighting. According to Bloomberg, the share of forcibly mobilized soldiers in the Ukrainian army is 75%

Forcing with conscription as any country during war does? Wow, surprise. Let see Paul Allans army - what’s the volunteer share in Russian army? How much are they paying to to volunteer nowdays? And why are there still volunteers joining Ukrainian side, forming entire battalions in the west, where they could just safely stay?

And even if they were none - you claim Ukraine is a nazi country. You probably know about “operation Gladio”. How can you believe there could be peace if there’s supposedly a massive Ukrainan nazi population and western fascist states willing to use them to destroy Russia, and said Russia attempts to operate on Ukrainians own territory? You’re just casually expecting a CCCP vs Makhnovshchina/Holodomor or Israeli style genocide, or how else could that play out in your head?

Let’s see what somebody with an actual clue from the The Royal United Services Institute in UK has to say about that

If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its industrial capacity, mobilisation doctrine and means of waging a protracted war, rather than conducting wargames covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war will end afterwards. As the Iraq War taught us, hope is not a method.

What’s your point here? Long hoping I waste time on reading a longer text with generic statements like “one should prepare for war”? Have a look at Russian reporting on Polands recent armaments. Everyone is already quite invested into that already.

Can you please check the economic crash in Germany that’s unfolding due to lack of cheap energy from Russia? Guess what ramping up military industry needs, that’s right lots of energy for shit like steel production.

Ever heard of Norway and US, the NATO countries?

Meanwhile in the real world

You’re 12 years old or something? You pick one factor, end believe it solves all or somehow compares to GDP? Clearly you don’t care either about say the social securities system, nor if there’s enough trucks and tracks to transport these shell, or, more importantly quality barrels and trained artillery men to accurately use them. Arrow goes up. I got some Putin NFT’s to sell to you if you’re that dumb.

Oh you’ve been working with all the brave Ukrainian patriots who fled the fighting.

Yeah, including Belarusian and Russians. Some 90% women, damn cowards. Should have stayed in cities daily bombarded by your peaceful friends.

Nah, they’re just gonna stay in Europe.

There’s literally tens of thousands being trained in Europe to head back to Ukraine at the very moment. You ever even talked to a real life Ukrainian or you live in your delusional bubble on the internet?

life’s gonna get real hard for people like you real soon.

It is, just to remind you, we’re already dealing with people Russia attempts to kill either by forcing them over Poland’s eastern border, or the ones who had to escape being butchered in the name of your vision of peace in Ukraine.

You pushed this discussion into the issue of war, now you escape it after sidetracking anything that could be proved and argued based on evidence (like Ukraine being somehow necessary to invade Russia which is utter bullshit with history clearly proving you wrong, twice) and redirecting it onto issues of speculation, or lacking data.
Your ignorance and fixation on accepting only propaganda over actually visiting the countries you talk about or talking to their people insulates you from reality, while projecting your insecurity that causes onto me, where I explicitly state basis for my opinions. All you did throughout this entire discussion was cover your eyes, and attempt to insult me while blasting “RT” propaganda 1:1. I just hope you’re paid for spilling this bullshit cuz otherwise you’re just a classical case of a western “useful idiot” as uncle Joseph would say. Hope you get better one day, seriously.

You’re hillarious, here’s a refresher of your own escaping https://lemmy.ml/comment/15056594

What’s “deflecting” about giving you very simple, clear historical evidence your argument is invalid?

You’d do anything not to accept the fact, that your argument is absolute bullshit, wouldn’t you?

Poles raided Moscow, and set their Czar btw, going straight through current day Belarus. So did the French reach it. So attempted the Germans. The argument of Ukraine being needed for that has no basis neither in history nor modern warfare.

If they won why is there fighting still going? And if it’s still going on now and drains Russian resources and bleeds the country (as NATO intends) then why would it stop? It would seem Russia only keeps stepping deeper into NATOs trap, whether it “won” or not? Can you please check what percentage of it’s GDP Europe spends militarizing vs the “winning” Russia? If I recall correctly Russian economic might could be matched by just Germany and Poland, and entire EU would be something like 3-4 times more easily? So if the European states alone want to fight it, they can do it indefinitely from Russian perspective.
As for Ukrainians, so happens I’ve been working with refugees, my team has been in touch with a few thousand of them, and majority of the team itself is Ukrainian or Belorussian. To put it mildly - you’re out of touch with reality. You understand very little of the hatred towards Russia that it has developed. And there are new generations growing up already, who’d been thought by Russia that neither election or just accepting Russian rule is not an option if they want to survive, the only option is force. There’s only that many watniks and North Koreans one can spend and still have a population that can recover. And if these are bleeding out against mostly 1980’s NATO equipment and modernized soviet era tanks, this would not work out better against less corrupt and much better armed states willing to train new generations of fighters willing to fight till their land is reclaimed? If you believed what you’re saying you’d understand there’s no chance for Russia to actually win.

Out of 2 forces that reached Moscow, which one went through Ukraine?